Bitcoin’s strongest cheerleaders just got a high-profile check. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, said the current bull cycle may end in 2026, arguing that Bitcoin’s historical four-year pattern appears intact after a 2025 peak and that a “year off” could follow. He placed key support for the Bitcoin price in a $65,000–$75,000 range, even as he stressed he remains a long-term bull.
Timmer’s view arrived as crypto markets weigh whether October’s surge near $125K–$126K already marked the cycle top. Several outlets summarizing his charts and commentary noted he sees the recent advance as consistent with prior halving-cycle arcs—followed historically by a roughly year-long “crypto winter.”
What exactly Timmer said
In posts and media summaries, Timmer called 2026 a potential “off year” for BTC, adding that while the secular bull case remains, investors should be prepared for a drawdown that could test $65K–$75K as support. That framing has been repeated across reputable crypto media and finance pages covering his note.
CoinDesk wrote that the Fidelity strategist now expects a year-long cooldown, pointing to prior cycles where momentum faded after halving-era peaks. Yahoo Finance amplified the same message—2026 as a “year off”—and highlighted the $65K–$75K zone as the technical area to watch.
Why the four-year cycle keeps coming up
Timmer leans on the idea that Bitcoin’s price structure still echoes its halving rhythm, with upside arcs ending one to two years after a halving, then a retrace and base-building phase. His read: the latest “green zone” may have ended with the October 2025 high, clipping some of the exuberance that came with ETFs and macro tailwinds. That puts 2026 in the historical “winter” window.
Notably, the strategist did not call for structural failure. The message is cyclical, not existential: the long-term trend (institutional adoption, supply schedule) stays intact, but the next 12–18 months might reward patience, hedges, or selective risk rather than chase-the-rip tactics.
The numbers traders are circling
- Potential top: Around $125K–$126K in October 2025, which Timmer and others point to as consistent with prior peaks in timing and magnitude.
- Support band: $65K–$75K is Timmer’s range to watch if the bull cycle has indeed rolled over. Several outlets repeated that zone as his “brutal”/“fallow year” support.
- Duration: Prior “winters” tend to last about a year, in his framing—hence the expectation for 2026 to be the pause.
The pushback: Bitwise and Grayscale see new highs in 2026
Timmer’s caution collides with a rising chorus of bullish 2026 outlooks. Bitwise’s “10 Crypto Predictions for 2026” argues the market is breaking out of the four-year cycle, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana setting new all-time highs next year as ETFs and institutional flows absorb more net supply than miners issue.
Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook also expects higher valuations across sectors and suggests Bitcoin could exceed prior highs in the first half of 2026, even as it declares the end of the simple four-year cycle narrative amid deeper institutional integration. In short: the biggest crypto asset managers see macro demand and regulation propelling prices higher, not into hibernation.
This divergence matters because it frames how funds set risk. If Timmer is right, traders will buy the dip closer to $65K–$75K. If Bitwise/Grayscale are closer to the mark, failing to deploy earlier could mean missing upside into the very year Timmer labels “off.”
What to watch into 2026
- Price behavior around $80K → $75K → $65K. If BTC grinds into Timmer’s zone and defends it, the “off year” may be range-bound rather than a sharp collapse. If it slices through, the cycle-top case strengthens.
- ETF flows vs. miner issuance. Bitwise argues ETFs may soak up more supply than miners produce; weekly flow reports will test that claim.
- Macro risk & adoption news. Grayscale’s thesis leans on institutional demand and policy clarity; watch for regulatory milestones and large mandates.
Conclusion
Fidelity’s macro lead just poured cool water on the idea that Bitcoin’s melt-up can run uninterrupted: 2026 may be the “off year”, with support around $65K–$75K, if the four-year cycle keeps asserting itself. Yet heavyweights Bitwise and Grayscale argue the opposite—that institutionalization is breaking the old script and could push new highs in 2026. The split gives traders a clean roadmap: track price vs. Timmer’s support, ETF demand vs. issuance, and policy progress. Whether 2026 turns into a crypto winter or a fresh breakout, those three dials will tell the story.