Bitcoin’s latest sell-off hasn’t just pushed prices lower—it’s upended a key cross-asset relationship. According to CoinDesk’s markets desk, the BTC/gold (BTC/XAU) ratio’s 14-day RSI has slumped to ~22, its most oversold reading since November 2022. The same analysis warns that oversold doesn’t equal “immediate bounce,” but it does highlight how far crypto has lagged bullion during this risk-off streak. At the same time, technicians note BTC is losing altitude below the 200-day moving average and is eyeing a test of sub-$100,000 support.
The setup arrives amid a dramatic macro rotation. Gold has ripped to fresh records, with some live-blog coverage on Friday noting spot quotes north of $4,300/oz, while Bitcoin slid to its weakest level since June—an extreme divergence even by 2025’s standards. That risk-off tone isn’t confined to crypto; equities were wobbly globally, and volatility gauges rose across assets.
The signal in plain Language
The RSI (relative strength index) compares recent gains and losses; readings below 30 are commonly labeled “oversold.” When you compute RSI on the BTC/XAU ratio, you’re effectively measuring how stretched Bitcoin is relative to gold. CoinDesk’s chart shows the ratio’s 14-day RSI near 22, undercutting February’s trough and reaching a zone last visited in late 2022—when BTC was in the depths of its bear market. Crucially, the desk emphasizes that an oversold ratio doesn’t promise a fast rebound; it’s a condition, not a timing tool. Traders typically look for bullish divergences or a break in downside momentum to confirm a turn.
Why gold matters right now
Part of the story is simply gold’s run. The metal has outperformed most risk assets this year, pulling in safe-haven flows as macro nerves flared. Reports on Friday pointed to a flight-to-quality bid: bank-sector jitters, global growth worries, and policy uncertainty—all classic ingredients for a gold surge and a risk-asset cool-off. That backdrop helps explain why Bitcoin is oversold relative to bullion, not just in absolute terms.
The BTC chart: levels to watch
Technically, the near-term focus is whether BTC can hold the six-figure handle. The same CoinDesk read-through notes that price has found acceptance below the 200-day SMA, a setup that can embolden momentum sellers. The lower boundary of an expanding channel sits just under $100,000 (~$99,500), while the 50-week SMA (~$101,700) is flagged as a longer-horizon support that helped underpin prior advances. If BTC stabilizes back above the 200-day and prints a higher low, that would be a healthier tell than a one-day RSI bounce.
Context from broader markets
It’s not just charts. Friday’s tape featured cross-asset volatility, with crypto, stocks, and even gold volatility measures spiking—a classic sign that investors are simultaneously de-risking and crowding into perceived havens. Separate CoinDesk coverage framed the day as a “risk-off” cluster, with BTC probing a critical support zone while volatility indices across markets jumped. Meanwhile, mainstream outlets pegged BTC near $105,000 intraday, down mid-single digits, as gold notched fresh highs.
How traders are reading the “oversold vs. gold” cue
For macro-minded crypto traders, the BTC/XAU ratio is a rotation gauge: when it’s plunging, capital is favoring bullion; when it baselins and rises, money is rotating back into crypto risk. Historically, deeply oversold ratio readings have sometimes preceded multi-week recoveries in BTC—but not always, and rarely without confirmation from price action (stops of lower lows) and liquidity (improving order-book depth). The key is sequence: first, stop going down; second, reclaim a moving average (like the 200-day); third, see follow-through volume. Without that, oversold can stay oversold.
What would change the story?
- Gold cool-down: If bullion pauses after its vertical run, the ratio could rebound even if BTC only stabilizes; that’s the mechanical effect of a two-asset ratio. Watch gold’s momentum as closely as BTC’s.
- Reclaiming the 200-day: A decisive daily close back above the 200-day SMA, then a hold, would weaken the bear case and invite dip-buyers back in.
- Volatility fade: A retreat in cross-asset volatility tends to ease forced selling and improve risk appetite—a necessary condition for BTC to base.
Bottom line
Bitcoin looks historically stretched versus gold at a moment when macro fear is doing the talking. The BTC/XAU RSI flashing its most oversold print since 2022 puts a contrarian spark on traders’ dashboards, but signals need structure: until BTC reclaims key moving averages and the market shows it can hold those levels, oversold is informational, not actionable. If gold finally exhales and BTC stabilizes around the $100,000 area, the ingredients for a base could fall into place. If not, the ratio can stay pinned and price could probe deeper supports.