Bitcoin’s reputation for a strong November is taking a hit this year. In a fresh note, Bitfinex analysts cautioned that BTC may be staring at more “red days”, even as some indicators hint that demand could return after the latest selloff. The warning—summarized by ForkLog and rooted in the weekly Bitfinex Alpha research—lands after a bruising month that’s defied the market’s usual seasonality narrative.
November is “usually” bullish—so why the slump?
You’ve probably seen the chart that crowns November as Bitcoin’s strongest month. That stat is technically true on the average (mean) return, but it’s skewed by 2013’s +449% outlier. A closer read shows the median November gain is a far tamer ~8.8%, meaning “Moonvember” doesn’t guarantee gains in any given year. In short: the seasonality isn’t broken; it’s just not a cheat code.
This year, BTC has done the opposite of “Moonvember.” ForkLog’s recap of the Bitfinex view notes Bitcoin is ending November in the red, bucking pattern and bruising sentiment. That context matters for traders who leaned on seasonality alone.
What Bitfinex sees under the hood
The Bitfinex Alpha team points to a cluster of market stresses that help explain the drawdown:
- Derivatives deleveraging: After a huge flush in October, the market saw billions more in losses the following week—evidence that futures and perpetuals positioning was still unwinding. When leverage comes out, price usually gets dragged lower in the process.
- BTC leading risk assets down: Their note observes that Bitcoin topped before equities, echoing a pattern from earlier in 2025 and hinting that traditional markets might still have room to correct—not the backdrop you want when crypto is fighting for a bounce.
At the same time, Bitfinex isn’t all doom. The analysts argue that, once forced sellers finish, demand can return—especially if spot buying or on-chain accumulation reappears at key levels. ForkLog’s summary captures that two-handed view: red now, but a potential bid on the other side.
Seasonality vs. reality: how to square the circle
Why did a “strong month” turn weak? Three reasons show up in the data and the narrative:
- Averages can mislead. The 42% average November gain since 2013 is bloated by one monster year. CoinDesk’s breakdown makes the case for using median returns and treating seasonality as context, not a trigger.
- Leverage cuts both ways. The October–November slide wasn’t just spot selling; it was derivatives stress working through the system (liquidations, reduced risk appetite). That tends to snowball until open interest and funding normalize.
- Macro correlation matters. If equities wobble, BTC’s correlation can spike at the worst time. Bitfinex’s observation that BTC topped before stocks suggests crypto may have front-run a broader de-risking move.
What would flip the script?
Bitfinex’s framing implies a few milestones to watch if you’re tracking the next trend change:
- Signs that forced selling has run its course. Look for calmer derivatives metrics—smaller liquidation prints, stabilizing funding, and open interest rebuilding without frothy leverage. The last Alpha update highlighted how persistent the deleveraging has been; you want that to quiet down first.
- Evidence of spot demand. Whether it’s ETF net inflows (where available) or visible on-chain accumulation, a healthier bid in spot markets is what converts bounces into durable floors.
- Macro stabilization. If stocks stabilize or rates expectations cool, crypto’s beta can work for BTC rather than against it. Bitfinex’s note that BTC topped ahead of equities suggests equities’ next move will still influence crypto’s path.
What “red days” mean for traders
Calling out “red days” isn’t an end-of-the-world forecast. It’s a risk-management nudge. Here’s how to read—and use—it:
- Respect volatility fat tails. When leverage clears, slippage and gaps get worse. Position sizing and wider stops matter more than cute chart patterns in this regime. (Bitfinex’s deleveraging data is your tell.)
- Seasonality is not a strategy. Even the best month on average can be deeply negative depending on macro and positioning. CoinDesk’s mean-vs-median explainer is a sober reminder to avoid one-variable bets.
- Plan for both paths. If demand reappears (as Bitfinex allows), failed breakdowns and higher lows will show up first on spot and LTFs, not on Twitter. If it doesn’t, accept that lower supports can get tested in thin conditions.
Conclusion
In other words, “red days” are a posture, not a prophecy. If you’ve been leaning on seasonality alone, this month is your reminder to watch derivatives plumbing, spot flows, and macro—the things that actually decide whether BTC’s next move is another leg down or the start of something sturdier.